SPiCT assessment report for Nephrops FU31
09/02/2026
Comments:
- Quite uncertain assessment
- Diagnostics pass;, but quite sensitive to a few settings
- Good practices say to use stdevfacI, but it puts less weight on recent observations and not using it reduces assessment uncertainty
- High process uncertainty: sdb is estimated to be quite large (0.32) - using a prior to force it down, decreases stock status and increases uncertainty - is the high sdb okay? What is the sdb for the other NEP FUs?
- Sensitive to spinup: Removing spinup reduces stock status but increases uncertainty of MSY and Bmsy - longer spinup increases retrospective patterns
- Sensitive to input data: Tweedie index model leads to lower uncertainty, but some ini issues and uncertainty of delta-lognormal index model might be more realistic
- Sensitive to n: Fox model not useful
- Use model without stdevfacI as baseline (less uncertain, slightly lower TAC, really best to down-weight more recent years with fewer positive and more zero hauls?)
Baseline
The current baseline model includes:
- relative abundance index from the delta-lognormal index model
- relative uncertainty scaling estimated by the index model
- spinup period of 10 years (160 time steps)
- n fixed to 2 (Schaefer model)
- prior for log(r)~N(log(0.38), 0.2) (+bias correction) which corresponds to the same prior used for NEP FU28/29
## Convergence: 0 MSG: relative convergence (4)
## Objective function at optimum: 74.3865016
## Euler time step (years): 1/16 or 0.0625
## Nobs C: 41, Nobs I1: 40
##
## Residual diagnostics (p-values)
## shapiro bias acf LBox shapiro bias acf LBox
## C 0.5926 0.8762 0.1186 0.4013 - - - -
## I1 0.3956 0.7100 0.5529 0.7868 - - - -
## F 0.2744 0.6313 0.1415 0.2986 - - - -
## B 0.5949 0.5698 0.0221 0.0915 - - * .
##
## Priors
## logr ~ dnorm[log(0.372), 0.2^2]
##
## Fixed parameters
## fixed.value
## n 2
##
## Model parameter estimates w 95% CI
## estimate cilow ciupp log.est
## alpha 1.6828629 0.8781343 3.2250506 0.5204964
## beta 0.3374398 0.0712982 1.5970342 -1.0863682
## r 0.3299176 0.2318275 0.4695112 -1.1089124
## rc 0.3299176 0.2318275 0.4695112 -1.1089124
## rold 0.3299176 0.2318275 0.4695112 -1.1089124
## m 69.9501728 20.7587412 235.7092192 4.2477832
## K 848.0926786 243.1099640 2958.5837603 6.7429899
## q 0.0007020 0.0002391 0.0020614 -7.2615535
## sdb 0.3260811 0.1866085 0.5697965 -1.1206092
## sdf 0.2993334 0.1805663 0.4962190 -1.2061974
## sdi 0.5487498 0.4069882 0.7398895 -0.6001128
## sdc 0.1010070 0.0285869 0.3568912 -2.2925656
##
## Deterministic reference points (Drp)
## estimate cilow ciupp log.est
## Bmsyd 424.0463393 121.5549820 1479.2918801 6.049843
## Fmsyd 0.1649588 0.1159138 0.2347556 -1.802060
## MSYd 69.9501728 20.7587412 235.7092192 4.247783
## Stochastic reference points (Srp)
## estimate cilow ciupp log.est rel.diff.Drp
## Bmsys 342.8759917 85.085362 1381.7176493 5.837369 -0.2367338
## Fmsys 0.1385914 0.091838 0.2091462 -1.976225 -0.1902527
## MSYs 45.3794066 9.275442 222.0153594 3.815058 -0.5414519
##
## States w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
## estimate cilow ciupp log.est
## B_2024.94 215.5431783 60.2175720 771.5166887 5.3731613
## F_2024.94 0.0701162 0.0194328 0.2529889 -2.6576012
## B_2024.94/Bmsy 0.6286330 0.0813120 4.8600364 -0.4642076
## F_2024.94/Fmsy 0.5059204 0.1528800 1.6742251 -0.6813759
##
## Predictions w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
## prediction cilow ciupp log.est
## B_2027.00 271.7008567 65.4824242 1127.3460990 5.6047017
## F_2027.00 0.0701166 0.0151058 0.3254594 -2.6575963
## B_2027.00/Bmsy 0.7924173 0.1114072 5.6363048 -0.2326672
## F_2027.00/Fmsy 0.5059229 0.1170747 2.1862787 -0.6813710
## Catch_2026.00 18.0261036 6.1165067 53.1251620 2.8918209
## E(B_inf) 308.2247929 NA NA 5.7308294
Diagnostics
Jitter
## Distance m K q sdb sdf sdi sdc
## Basevec 0.00 69.95 848.09 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 1 0.05 69.95 848.04 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 2 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 3 0.03 69.95 848.07 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 4 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 5 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 6 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 7 0.01 69.95 848.09 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 8 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 9 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 10 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 11 0.02 69.95 848.07 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 12 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 13 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 14 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 15 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 16 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 17 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 18 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 19 0.02 69.95 848.07 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 20 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 21 0.02 69.95 848.07 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 22 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 23 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 24 0.02 69.95 848.07 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 25 0.01 69.95 848.10 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 26 0.01 69.95 848.09 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 27 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 28 0.02 69.95 848.11 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 29 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 30 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 31 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 32 0.03 69.95 848.07 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 33 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 34 0.01 69.95 848.09 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 35 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 36 0.03 69.95 848.06 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 37 0.04 69.95 848.05 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 38 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 39 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 40 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 41 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 42 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 43 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 44 0.02 69.95 848.07 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 45 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 46 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 47 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 48 0.02 69.95 848.07 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 49 0.04 69.95 848.05 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
## Trial 50 0.02 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1Prior-posterior
Obs. residuals
Proc. residuals
Retro
## FFmsy BBmsy
## -0.1279614 0.1758665MASE
Management advice
## SPiCT timeline:
##
## Observations Intermediate Management
## 1983.00 - 2025.00 2025.00 - 2026.00 2026.00 - 2027.00
## |-----------------------| ----------------------| ----------------------|
##
## Management evaluation: 2027.00
##
## Predicted catch for management period and states at management evaluation time:
##
## C B/Bmsy F/Fmsy
## 1. ices35 28.0 0.76 0.80
## 2. ices15 19.7 0.79 0.55Sensitivity scenarios
Scenario settings:
Scenario groups
Uncertainty scaling
Comparison plots
With uncertainty
Without uncertainty
Spinup
Comparison plots
With uncertainty
Without uncertainty
Prior - r
Comparison plots
With uncertainty
Without uncertainty
Prior - sdb
Comparison plots
With uncertainty
Without uncertainty
Index model
Comparison plots
With uncertainty
Without uncertainty
Production curve
Comparison plots
With uncertainty
Without uncertainty
Scenarios
Baseline
Convergence: 0 MSG: relative convergence (4)
Objective function at optimum: 74.3865016
Euler time step (years): 1/16 or 0.0625
Nobs C: 41, Nobs I1: 40
Residual diagnostics (p-values)
shapiro bias acf LBox shapiro bias acf LBox
C 0.5926 0.8762 0.1186 0.4013 - - - -
I1 0.3956 0.7100 0.5529 0.7868 - - - -
F 0.2744 0.6313 0.1415 0.2986 - - - -
B 0.5949 0.5698 0.0221 0.0915 - - * .
Priors
logr ~ dnorm[log(0.372), 0.2^2]
Fixed parameters
fixed.value
n 2
Model parameter estimates w 95% CI
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
alpha 1.6828629 0.8781343 3.2250506 0.5204964
beta 0.3374398 0.0712982 1.5970342 -1.0863682
r 0.3299176 0.2318275 0.4695112 -1.1089124
rc 0.3299176 0.2318275 0.4695112 -1.1089124
rold 0.3299176 0.2318275 0.4695112 -1.1089124
m 69.9501728 20.7587412 235.7092192 4.2477832
K 848.0926786 243.1099640 2958.5837603 6.7429899
q 0.0007020 0.0002391 0.0020614 -7.2615535
sdb 0.3260811 0.1866085 0.5697965 -1.1206092
sdf 0.2993334 0.1805663 0.4962190 -1.2061974
sdi 0.5487498 0.4069882 0.7398895 -0.6001128
sdc 0.1010070 0.0285869 0.3568912 -2.2925656
Deterministic reference points (Drp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
Bmsyd 424.0463393 121.5549820 1479.2918801 6.049843
Fmsyd 0.1649588 0.1159138 0.2347556 -1.802060
MSYd 69.9501728 20.7587412 235.7092192 4.247783
Stochastic reference points (Srp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est rel.diff.Drp
Bmsys 342.8759917 85.085362 1381.7176493 5.837369 -0.2367338
Fmsys 0.1385914 0.091838 0.2091462 -1.976225 -0.1902527
MSYs 45.3794066 9.275442 222.0153594 3.815058 -0.5414519
States w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
B_2024.94 215.5431783 60.2175720 771.5166887 5.3731613
F_2024.94 0.0701162 0.0194328 0.2529889 -2.6576012
B_2024.94/Bmsy 0.6286330 0.0813120 4.8600364 -0.4642076
F_2024.94/Fmsy 0.5059204 0.1528800 1.6742251 -0.6813759
Predictions w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
prediction cilow ciupp log.est
B_2027.00 271.7008567 65.4824242 1127.3460990 5.6047017
F_2027.00 0.0701166 0.0151058 0.3254594 -2.6575963
B_2027.00/Bmsy 0.7924173 0.1114072 5.6363048 -0.2326672
F_2027.00/Fmsy 0.5059229 0.1170747 2.1862787 -0.6813710
Catch_2026.00 18.0261036 6.1165067 53.1251620 2.8918209
E(B_inf) 308.2247929 NA NA 5.7308294 Distance m K q sdb sdf sdi sdc
Basevec 0.00 69.95 848.09 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 1 0.05 69.95 848.04 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 2 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 3 0.03 69.95 848.07 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 4 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 5 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 6 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 7 0.01 69.95 848.09 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 8 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 9 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 10 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 11 0.02 69.95 848.07 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 12 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 13 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 14 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 15 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 16 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 17 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 18 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 19 0.02 69.95 848.07 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 20 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 21 0.02 69.95 848.07 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 22 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 23 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 24 0.02 69.95 848.07 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 25 0.01 69.95 848.10 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 26 0.01 69.95 848.09 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 27 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 28 0.02 69.95 848.11 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 29 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 30 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 31 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 32 0.03 69.95 848.07 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 33 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 34 0.01 69.95 848.09 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 35 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 36 0.03 69.95 848.06 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 37 0.04 69.95 848.05 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 38 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 39 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 40 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 41 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 42 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 43 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 44 0.02 69.95 848.07 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 45 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 46 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 47 0.01 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 48 0.02 69.95 848.07 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 49 0.04 69.95 848.05 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 50 0.02 69.95 848.08 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
SPiCT timeline:
Observations Intermediate Management
1983.00 - 2025.00 2025.00 - 2026.00 2026.00 - 2027.00
|-----------------------| ----------------------| ----------------------|
Management evaluation: 2027.00
Predicted catch for management period and states at management evaluation time:
C B/Bmsy F/Fmsy
1. ices35 28.0 0.76 0.80
2. ices15 19.7 0.79 0.55No_stdevfacI
Convergence: 0 MSG: relative convergence (4)
Objective function at optimum: 76.6557694
Euler time step (years): 1/16 or 0.0625
Nobs C: 41, Nobs I1: 40
Residual diagnostics (p-values)
shapiro bias acf LBox shapiro bias acf LBox
C 0.6057 0.8906 0.0617 0.2854 - - . -
I1 0.0363 0.7744 0.3730 0.5846 * - - -
F 0.2242 0.7094 0.1181 0.2865 - - - -
B 0.4434 0.9307 0.0325 0.1286 - - * -
Priors
logr ~ dnorm[log(0.372), 0.2^2]
Fixed parameters
fixed.value
n 2
Model parameter estimates w 95% CI
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
alpha 1.8151681 0.9695656 3.3982593 0.5961781
beta 0.3031311 0.0565433 1.6250980 -1.1935898
r 0.3290032 0.2303251 0.4699578 -1.1116879
rc 0.3290032 0.2303251 0.4699578 -1.1116879
rold 0.3290032 0.2303251 0.4699578 -1.1116879
m 63.5516497 41.0494712 98.3888968 4.1518530
K 772.6569666 486.8276373 1226.3042240 6.6498352
q 0.0006879 0.0002740 0.0017270 -7.2818131
sdb 0.3205553 0.1973286 0.5207340 -1.1377005
sdf 0.3173847 0.1965425 0.5125255 -1.1476407
sdi 0.5818618 0.4338167 0.7804289 -0.5415224
sdc 0.0962092 0.0238617 0.3879101 -2.3412305
Deterministic reference points (Drp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
Bmsyd 386.3284833 243.4138186 613.1521120 5.956688
Fmsyd 0.1645016 0.1151626 0.2349789 -1.804835
MSYd 63.5516497 41.0494712 98.3888968 4.151853
Stochastic reference points (Srp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est rel.diff.Drp
Bmsys 314.700203 200.0711744 495.0049296 5.751620 -0.2276080
Fmsys 0.139019 0.0941523 0.2052663 -1.973145 -0.1833029
MSYs 41.924034 25.0770811 70.0888851 3.735859 -0.5158763
States w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
B_2024.94 201.2133639 60.1042737 673.6096338 5.3043659
F_2024.94 0.0748920 0.0223836 0.2505773 -2.5917084
B_2024.94/Bmsy 0.6393811 0.2043123 2.0008985 -0.4472546
F_2024.94/Fmsy 0.5387176 0.1688951 1.7183255 -0.6185637
Predictions w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
prediction cilow ciupp log.est
B_2027.00 250.8229845 61.1255005 1029.229521 5.5247474
F_2027.00 0.0748923 0.0166736 0.336392 -2.5917038
B_2027.00/Bmsy 0.7970220 0.2063650 3.078255 -0.2268730
F_2027.00/Fmsy 0.5387201 0.1246025 2.329162 -0.6185591
Catch_2026.00 17.8224213 6.1370589 51.757480 2.8804573
E(B_inf) 278.9798921 NA NA 5.6311397 Distance m K q sdb sdf sdi sdc
Basevec 0.00 63.55 772.66 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 1 0.01 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 2 0.01 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 3 0.01 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 4 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 5 0.00 63.55 772.66 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 6 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 7 0.01 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 8 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 9 0.01 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 10 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 11 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 12 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 13 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 14 0.01 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 15 0.01 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 16 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 17 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 18 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 19 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 20 0.01 63.55 772.66 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 21 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 22 0.01 63.55 772.64 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 23 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 24 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 25 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 26 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 27 0.00 63.55 772.66 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 28 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 29 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 30 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 31 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 32 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 33 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 34 0.01 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 35 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 36 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 37 0.01 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 38 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 39 0.01 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 40 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 41 0.01 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 42 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 43 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 44 0.01 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 45 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 46 0.01 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 47 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 48 0.00 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 49 0.00 63.55 772.66 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
Trial 50 0.01 63.55 772.65 0 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.1
SPiCT timeline:
Observations Intermediate Management
1983.00 - 2025.00 2025.00 - 2026.00 2026.00 - 2027.00
|-----------------------| ----------------------| ----------------------|
Management evaluation: 2027.00
Predicted catch for management period and states at management evaluation time:
C B/Bmsy F/Fmsy
1. ices35 26.1 0.77 0.80
2. ices15 18.4 0.79 0.56No_spinup
Convergence: 0 MSG: relative convergence (4)
Objective function at optimum: 75.182328
Euler time step (years): 1/16 or 0.0625
Nobs C: 41, Nobs I1: 40
Residual diagnostics (p-values)
shapiro bias acf LBox shapiro bias acf LBox
C 0.4056 0.6310 0.2015 0.4185 - - - -
I1 0.2367 0.7907 0.3027 0.6742 - - - -
F 0.0013 0.6964 0.6476 0.9542 ** - - -
B 0.1083 0.9101 0.0430 0.0897 - - * .
Priors
logr ~ dnorm[log(0.372), 0.2^2]
Fixed parameters
fixed.value
n 2
Model parameter estimates w 95% CI
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
alpha 1.8646876 0.9668960 3.5961054 0.6230935
beta 0.3673968 0.0945920 1.4269742 -1.0013129
r 0.3238624 0.2277167 0.4606023 -1.1274367
rc 0.3238624 0.2277167 0.4606023 -1.1274367
rold 0.3238624 0.2277167 0.4606023 -1.1274367
m 110.2262631 26.9440001 450.9289271 4.7025352
K 1361.3964150 313.3291368 5915.1862407 7.2162662
q 0.0008487 0.0003745 0.0019237 -7.0717728
sdb 0.2944007 0.1745611 0.4965124 -1.2228135
sdf 0.2985835 0.1823318 0.4889553 -1.2087057
sdi 0.5489654 0.4096635 0.7356353 -0.5997199
sdc 0.1096986 0.0384229 0.3131930 -2.2100185
Deterministic reference points (Drp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
Bmsyd 680.6982075 156.6645684 2957.5931203 6.523119
Fmsyd 0.1619312 0.1138583 0.2303011 -1.820584
MSYd 110.2262631 26.9440001 450.9289271 4.702535
Stochastic reference points (Srp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est rel.diff.Drp
Bmsys 572.8586030 123.2262872 2663.1247798 6.350639 -0.1882482
Fmsys 0.1404314 0.0957946 0.2058674 -1.963036 -0.1530981
MSYs 78.1288130 16.1063764 378.9872568 4.358359 -0.4108273
States w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
B_2024.94 185.7206485 59.8905331 575.9200571 5.2242437
F_2024.94 0.0822435 0.0265708 0.2545646 -2.4980709
B_2024.94/Bmsy 0.3241998 0.0373043 2.8175186 -1.1263953
F_2024.94/Fmsy 0.5856489 0.1949740 1.7591302 -0.5350348
Predictions w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
prediction cilow ciupp log.est
B_2027.00 251.3844751 63.9851040 987.6385337 5.5269835
F_2027.00 0.0822438 0.0201160 0.3362517 -2.4980667
B_2027.00/Bmsy 0.4388246 0.0477668 4.0314005 -0.8236554
F_2027.00/Fmsy 0.5856514 0.1467192 2.3377135 -0.5350306
Catch_2026.00 19.1936435 6.8831701 53.5212622 2.9545792
E(B_inf) 542.6297095 NA NA 6.2964272 Distance m K q sdb sdf sdi sdc
Basevec 0.00 110.23 1361.40 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 1 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 2 0.00 110.23 1361.40 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 3 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 4 0.02 110.23 1361.41 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 5 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 6 0.00 110.23 1361.40 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 7 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 8 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 9 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 10 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 11 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 12 0.00 110.23 1361.40 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 13 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 14 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 15 0.00 110.23 1361.40 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 16 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 17 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 18 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 19 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 20 0.00 110.23 1361.40 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 21 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 22 0.00 110.23 1361.40 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 23 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 24 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 25 0.00 110.23 1361.40 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 26 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 27 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 28 0.00 110.23 1361.40 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 29 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 30 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 31 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 32 0.00 110.23 1361.40 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 33 0.00 110.23 1361.40 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 34 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 35 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 36 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 37 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 38 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 39 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 40 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 41 0.01 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 42 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 43 0.01 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 44 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 45 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 46 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 47 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 48 0.00 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 49 0.01 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 50 0.01 110.23 1361.39 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
SPiCT timeline:
Observations Intermediate Management
1983.00 - 2025.00 2025.00 - 2026.00 2026.00 - 2027.00
|-----------------------| ----------------------| ----------------------|
Management evaluation: 2027.00
Predicted catch for management period and states at management evaluation time:
C B/Bmsy F/Fmsy
1. ices35 20.2 0.44 0.62
2. ices15 14.4 0.45 0.43Long_spinup
Convergence: 0 MSG: both X-convergence and relative convergence (5)
Objective function at optimum: 73.6912003
Euler time step (years): 1/16 or 0.0625
Nobs C: 41, Nobs I1: 40
Residual diagnostics (p-values)
shapiro bias acf LBox shapiro bias acf LBox
C 0.4680 0.9401 0.1026 0.3835 - - - -
I1 0.3041 0.7287 0.4385 0.7259 - - - -
F 0.9797 0.7018 0.1912 0.2932 - - - -
B 0.5767 0.6476 0.0408 0.0371 - - * *
Priors
logr ~ dnorm[log(0.372), 0.2^2]
Fixed parameters
fixed.value
n 2
Model parameter estimates w 95% CI
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
alpha 1.6874392 0.9449217 3.0134253 0.5232121
beta 0.3440700 0.0749121 1.5803078 -1.0669101
r 0.3295281 0.2307239 0.4706437 -1.1100937
rc 0.3295281 0.2307239 0.4706437 -1.1100937
rold 0.3295281 0.2307239 0.4706437 -1.1100937
m 69.1039643 47.1839454 101.2072611 4.2356121
K 838.8233732 543.2615067 1295.1859146 6.7320002
q 0.0006860 0.0002499 0.0018831 -7.2845665
sdb 0.3260848 0.2086360 0.5096497 -1.1205980
sdf 0.2964346 0.1787436 0.4916174 -1.2159286
sdi 0.5502482 0.4091207 0.7400581 -0.5973858
sdc 0.1019943 0.0301502 0.3450339 -2.2828387
Deterministic reference points (Drp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
Bmsyd 419.411687 271.630753 647.5929573 6.038853
Fmsyd 0.164764 0.115362 0.2353219 -1.803241
MSYd 69.103964 47.183945 101.2072611 4.235612
Stochastic reference points (Srp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est rel.diff.Drp
Bmsys 339.0488505 223.4215553 514.5167076 5.826144 -0.2370244
Fmsys 0.1383955 0.0928715 0.2062345 -1.977640 -0.1905303
MSYs 44.8037782 27.9318670 71.8669662 3.802293 -0.5423691
States w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
B_2024.94 220.5140142 62.4907529 778.1380159 5.3959612
F_2024.94 0.0684943 0.0194371 0.2413668 -2.6810054
B_2024.94/Bmsy 0.6503901 0.1795959 2.3553276 -0.4301829
F_2024.94/Fmsy 0.4949169 0.1495491 1.6378748 -0.7033655
Predictions w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
prediction cilow ciupp log.est
B_2027.00 276.9780952 66.5316507 1153.0882578 5.6239384
F_2027.00 0.0684946 0.0151180 0.3103252 -2.6810004
B_2027.00/Bmsy 0.8169268 0.1919419 3.4769353 -0.2022058
F_2027.00/Fmsy 0.4949193 0.1150622 2.1288057 -0.7033605
Catch_2026.00 17.9683781 6.3043810 51.2124207 2.8886134
E(B_inf) 309.0083193 NA NA 5.7333682 Distance m K q sdb sdf sdi sdc
Basevec 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 1 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 2 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 3 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 4 0.00 69.1 838.83 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 5 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 6 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 7 0.01 69.1 838.83 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 8 0.01 69.1 838.81 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 9 0.00 69.1 838.83 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 10 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 11 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 12 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 13 0.00 69.1 838.83 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 14 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 15 0.01 69.1 838.83 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 16 0.01 69.1 838.83 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 17 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 18 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 19 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 20 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 21 0.00 69.1 838.83 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 22 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 23 0.01 69.1 838.83 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 24 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 25 0.01 69.1 838.83 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 26 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 27 0.01 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 28 0.00 69.1 838.83 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 29 0.00 69.1 838.83 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 30 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 31 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 32 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 33 0.00 69.1 838.83 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 34 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 35 0.01 69.1 838.83 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 36 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 37 0.01 69.1 838.83 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 38 0.01 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 39 0.01 69.1 838.83 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 40 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 41 0.01 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 42 0.01 69.1 838.83 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 43 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 44 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 45 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 46 0.01 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 47 0.01 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 48 0.01 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 49 0.01 69.1 838.81 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 50 0.00 69.1 838.82 0 0.33 0.3 0.55 0.1
SPiCT timeline:
Observations Intermediate Management
1983.00 - 2025.00 2025.00 - 2026.00 2026.00 - 2027.00
|-----------------------| ----------------------| ----------------------|
Management evaluation: 2027.00
Predicted catch for management period and states at management evaluation time:
C B/Bmsy F/Fmsy
1. ices35 28.7 0.78 0.81
2. ices15 20.4 0.81 0.56low_r
Convergence: 0 MSG: relative convergence (4)
Objective function at optimum: 73.2808834
Euler time step (years): 1/16 or 0.0625
Nobs C: 41, Nobs I1: 40
Residual diagnostics (p-values)
shapiro bias acf LBox shapiro bias acf LBox
C 0.8439 0.6958 0.3090 0.5070 - - - -
I1 0.5215 0.6822 0.5616 0.8379 - - - -
F 0.2572 0.6959 0.1333 0.2810 - - - -
B 0.4471 0.5301 0.0390 0.1670 - - * -
Priors
logr ~ dnorm[log(0.196), 0.2^2]
Fixed parameters
fixed.value
n 2
Model parameter estimates w 95% CI
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
alpha 2.0823859 0.9878227 4.3897866 0.7335143
beta 0.3823686 0.1145480 1.2763715 -0.9613702
r 0.1910525 0.1318202 0.2769003 -1.6552069
rc 0.1910525 0.1318202 0.2769003 -1.6552069
rold 0.1910525 0.1318202 0.2769003 -1.6552069
m 60.2961146 14.6292522 248.5172438 4.0992677
K 1262.3986681 302.9759557 5259.9896699 7.1407689
q 0.0004188 0.0000740 0.0023715 -7.7781618
sdb 0.2679474 0.1381423 0.5197236 -1.3169646
sdf 0.3044223 0.1883702 0.4919723 -1.1893394
sdi 0.5579699 0.4209008 0.7396763 -0.5834503
sdc 0.1164015 0.0463352 0.2924195 -2.1507096
Deterministic reference points (Drp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
Bmsyd 631.1993341 151.4879779 2629.9948350 6.447622
Fmsyd 0.0955263 0.0659101 0.1384502 -2.348354
MSYd 60.2961146 14.6292522 248.5172438 4.099268
Stochastic reference points (Srp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est rel.diff.Drp
Bmsys 500.4038294 101.0677413 2477.5857195 6.215415 -0.2613799
Fmsys 0.0776225 0.0464232 0.1297897 -2.555898 -0.2306517
MSYs 36.5008465 5.1531003 258.5456779 3.597335 -0.6519100
States w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
B_2024.94 311.4221509 50.2505146 1930.0052300 5.7411494
F_2024.94 0.0473527 0.0074683 0.3002386 -3.0501321
B_2024.94/Bmsy 0.6223417 0.0358296 10.8097464 -0.4742660
F_2024.94/Fmsy 0.6100381 0.1171659 3.1762361 -0.4942338
Predictions w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
prediction cilow ciupp log.est
B_2027.00 350.8411813 54.9656725 2239.3892197 5.8603336
F_2027.00 0.0473530 0.0061817 0.3627323 -3.0501250
B_2027.00/Bmsy 0.7011161 0.0439427 11.1864702 -0.3550818
F_2027.00/Fmsy 0.6100425 0.0950467 3.9154610 -0.4942267
Catch_2026.00 16.1302641 5.8356191 44.5857437 2.7806973
E(B_inf) 293.5214077 NA NA 5.6819506 Distance m K q sdb sdf sdi sdc
Basevec 0.00 60.30 1262.40 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 1 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 2 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 3 0.03 60.30 1262.42 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 4 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 5 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 6 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 7 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 8 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 9 0.04 60.30 1262.44 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 10 0.04 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 11 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 12 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 13 0.04 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 14 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 15 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 16 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 17 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 18 0.01 60.30 1262.41 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 19 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 20 0.04 60.30 1262.44 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 21 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 22 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 23 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 24 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 25 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 26 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 27 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 28 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 29 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 30 0.04 60.30 1262.44 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 31 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 32 0.04 60.30 1262.44 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 33 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 34 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 35 0.05 60.30 1262.45 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 36 0.01 60.30 1262.41 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 37 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 38 0.04 60.30 1262.44 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 39 0.05 60.30 1262.45 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 40 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 41 0.04 60.30 1262.44 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 42 0.03 60.29 1262.37 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 43 0.04 60.30 1262.44 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 44 0.05 60.30 1262.44 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 45 0.07 60.30 1262.47 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 46 0.06 60.30 1262.46 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 47 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 48 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 49 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 50 0.03 60.30 1262.43 0 0.27 0.3 0.56 0.12
SPiCT timeline:
Observations Intermediate Management
1983.00 - 2025.00 2025.00 - 2026.00 2026.00 - 2027.00
|-----------------------| ----------------------| ----------------------|
Management evaluation: 2027.00
Predicted catch for management period and states at management evaluation time:
C B/Bmsy F/Fmsy
1. ices35 21.4 0.69 0.82
2. ices15 15.3 0.70 0.58high_r
Convergence: 0 MSG: relative convergence (4)
Objective function at optimum: 75.4059521
Euler time step (years): 1/16 or 0.0625
Nobs C: 41, Nobs I1: 40
Residual diagnostics (p-values)
shapiro bias acf LBox shapiro bias acf LBox
C 0.3494 0.9712 0.0759 0.3379 - - . -
I1 0.3182 0.7194 0.4974 0.7342 - - - -
F 0.3100 0.6020 0.1469 0.3087 - - - -
B 0.5332 0.5917 0.0164 0.0482 - - * *
Priors
logr ~ dnorm[log(0.49), 0.2^2]
Fixed parameters
fixed.value
n 2
Model parameter estimates w 95% CI
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
alpha 1.4930094 0.8121771 2.7445702 0.4007938
beta 0.2922337 0.0385635 2.2145458 -1.2302015
r 0.4106200 0.2900472 0.5813150 -0.8900870
rc 0.4106200 0.2900472 0.5813150 -0.8900870
rold 0.4106200 0.2900472 0.5813150 -0.8900870
m 71.8100842 26.0112631 198.2482813 4.2740249
K 699.5282867 241.7555924 2024.1096352 6.5504062
q 0.0008493 0.0003314 0.0021767 -7.0711037
sdb 0.3645093 0.2198352 0.6043938 -1.0092031
sdf 0.2989306 0.1768531 0.5052755 -1.2075437
sdi 0.5442159 0.3984051 0.7433914 -0.6084093
sdc 0.0873576 0.0154847 0.4928331 -2.4377451
Deterministic reference points (Drp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
Bmsyd 349.76414 120.8777962 1012.0548176 5.857259
Fmsyd 0.20531 0.1450236 0.2906575 -1.583234
MSYd 71.81008 26.0112631 198.2482813 4.274025
Stochastic reference points (Srp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est rel.diff.Drp
Bmsys 279.488702 84.7500618 921.6976693 5.632962 -0.2514429
Fmsys 0.172528 0.1171346 0.2541171 -1.757196 -0.1900099
MSYs 45.915844 11.9757592 176.0443487 3.826810 -0.5639500
States w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
B_2024.94 187.4789031 55.9462758 628.2516333 5.2336663
F_2024.94 0.0814148 0.0244837 0.2707262 -2.5081978
B_2024.94/Bmsy 0.6707924 0.1180717 3.8109250 -0.3992955
F_2024.94/Fmsy 0.4718936 0.1512648 1.4721434 -0.7510018
Predictions w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
prediction cilow ciupp log.est
B_2027.00 247.9566633 60.5851232 1014.811948 5.5132540
F_2027.00 0.0814152 0.0187781 0.352987 -2.5081935
B_2027.00/Bmsy 0.8871796 0.1616853 4.868021 -0.1197079
F_2027.00/Fmsy 0.4718956 0.1146287 1.942667 -0.7509976
Catch_2026.00 18.9162307 6.1675466 58.017200 2.9400203
E(B_inf) 265.1161387 NA NA 5.5801680 Distance m K q sdb sdf sdi sdc
Basevec 0.00 71.81 699.53 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 1 0.01 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 2 0.02 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 3 0.01 71.81 699.52 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 4 0.02 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 5 0.02 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 6 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 7 0.01 71.81 699.52 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 8 0.02 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 9 0.01 71.81 699.52 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 10 0.03 71.81 699.50 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 11 0.00 71.81 699.53 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 12 0.03 71.81 699.50 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 13 0.01 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 14 0.02 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 15 0.01 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 16 0.02 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 17 0.02 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 18 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 19 0.01 71.81 699.52 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 20 0.02 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 21 0.02 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 22 0.03 71.81 699.50 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 23 0.02 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 24 0.01 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 25 0.00 71.81 699.53 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 26 0.01 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 27 0.00 71.81 699.53 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 28 0.01 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 29 0.00 71.81 699.53 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 30 0.01 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 31 0.02 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 32 0.02 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 33 0.00 71.81 699.53 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 34 0.02 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 35 0.01 71.81 699.52 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 36 0.01 71.81 699.52 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 37 0.01 71.81 699.52 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 38 0.01 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 39 0.04 71.81 699.49 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 40 0.01 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 41 0.01 71.81 699.52 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 42 0.02 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 43 0.01 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 44 0.01 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 45 0.02 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 46 0.02 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 47 0.01 71.81 699.52 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 48 0.02 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 49 0.01 71.81 699.52 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
Trial 50 0.01 71.81 699.51 0 0.36 0.3 0.54 0.09
SPiCT timeline:
Observations Intermediate Management
1983.00 - 2025.00 2025.00 - 2026.00 2026.00 - 2027.00
|-----------------------| ----------------------| ----------------------|
Management evaluation: 2027.00
Predicted catch for management period and states at management evaluation time:
C B/Bmsy F/Fmsy
1. ices35 31.0 0.84 0.79
2. ices15 21.5 0.88 0.54narrow_r
Convergence: 0 MSG: relative convergence (4)
Objective function at optimum: 73.9087486
Euler time step (years): 1/16 or 0.0625
Nobs C: 41, Nobs I1: 40
Residual diagnostics (p-values)
shapiro bias acf LBox shapiro bias acf LBox
C 0.4754 0.9323 0.0950 0.3719 - - . -
I1 0.3357 0.7196 0.5389 0.7678 - - - -
F 0.2903 0.6161 0.1423 0.3025 - - - -
B 0.5753 0.5301 0.0209 0.0825 - - * .
Priors
logr ~ dnorm[log(0.378), 0.1^2]
Fixed parameters
fixed.value
n 2
Model parameter estimates w 95% CI
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
alpha 1.5967972 0.8650165 2.9476445 0.4679999
beta 0.3198780 0.0579652 1.7652315 -1.1398157
r 0.3645803 0.3014702 0.4409019 -1.0090086
rc 0.3645803 0.3014702 0.4409019 -1.0090086
rold 0.3645803 0.3014702 0.4409019 -1.0090086
m 70.9195920 22.3523980 225.0133756 4.2615467
K 778.0958135 242.3529343 2498.1463368 6.6568497
q 0.0007662 0.0002886 0.0020346 -7.1740319
sdb 0.3423936 0.2040094 0.5746468 -1.0717944
sdf 0.2989207 0.1788251 0.4996701 -1.2075770
sdi 0.5467331 0.4033210 0.7411393 -0.6037945
sdc 0.0956181 0.0232883 0.3925928 -2.3473927
Deterministic reference points (Drp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
Bmsyd 389.0479068 121.1764672 1249.0731684 5.963703
Fmsyd 0.1822901 0.1507351 0.2204509 -1.702156
MSYd 70.9195920 22.3523980 225.0133756 4.261547
Stochastic reference points (Srp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est rel.diff.Drp
Bmsys 313.3224305 84.6776108 1159.349497 5.747233 -0.2416855
Fmsys 0.1532765 0.1169126 0.200951 -1.875511 -0.1892895
MSYs 45.8279129 10.0769874 208.415225 3.824893 -0.5475196
States w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
B_2024.94 202.3330819 59.5492516 687.4759111 5.3099153
F_2024.94 0.0750394 0.0220979 0.2548159 -2.5897422
B_2024.94/Bmsy 0.6457663 0.0945664 4.4097485 -0.4373175
F_2024.94/Fmsy 0.4895686 0.1534966 1.5614507 -0.7142307
Predictions w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
prediction cilow ciupp log.est
B_2027.00 260.7197632 63.9327171 1063.2239323 5.5634461
F_2027.00 0.0750397 0.0170122 0.3309949 -2.5897377
B_2027.00/Bmsy 0.8321133 0.1317802 5.2542971 -0.1837867
F_2027.00/Fmsy 0.4895708 0.1168204 2.0516925 -0.7142262
Catch_2026.00 18.4271648 6.1472118 55.2381166 2.9138259
E(B_inf) 290.0665472 NA NA 5.6701104 Distance m K q sdb sdf sdi sdc
Basevec 0.00 70.92 778.10 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 1 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 2 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 3 0.02 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 4 0.00 70.92 778.10 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 5 0.01 70.92 778.09 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 6 0.00 70.92 778.10 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 7 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 8 0.01 70.92 778.10 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 9 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 10 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 11 0.01 70.92 778.09 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 12 0.00 70.92 778.10 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 13 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 14 0.03 70.92 778.06 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 15 0.03 70.92 778.07 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 16 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 17 0.01 70.92 778.11 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 18 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 19 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 20 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 21 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 22 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 23 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 24 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 25 0.01 70.92 778.09 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 26 0.01 70.92 778.09 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 27 0.01 70.92 778.09 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 28 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 29 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 30 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 31 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 32 0.02 70.92 778.07 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 33 0.03 70.92 778.07 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 34 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 35 0.03 70.92 778.07 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 36 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 37 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 38 0.02 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 39 0.02 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 40 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 41 0.00 70.92 778.10 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 42 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 43 0.01 70.92 778.10 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 44 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 45 0.02 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 46 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 47 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 48 0.01 70.92 778.08 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 49 0.01 70.92 778.09 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
Trial 50 0.02 70.92 778.11 0 0.34 0.3 0.55 0.1
SPiCT timeline:
Observations Intermediate Management
1983.00 - 2025.00 2025.00 - 2026.00 2026.00 - 2027.00
|-----------------------| ----------------------| ----------------------|
Management evaluation: 2027.00
Predicted catch for management period and states at management evaluation time:
C B/Bmsy F/Fmsy
1. ices35 29.4 0.80 0.80
2. ices15 20.6 0.83 0.55wide_r
Convergence: 0 MSG: both X-convergence and relative convergence (5)
Objective function at optimum: 74.6446371
Euler time step (years): 1/16 or 0.0625
Nobs C: 41, Nobs I1: 40
Residual diagnostics (p-values)
shapiro bias acf LBox shapiro bias acf LBox
C 0.7918 0.6759 0.2814 0.5099 - - - -
I1 0.4695 0.6945 0.5728 0.8266 - - - -
F 0.2646 0.6812 0.1394 0.2887 - - - -
B 0.5630 0.6500 0.0283 0.1293 - - * -
Priors
logr ~ dnorm[log(0.335), 0.5^2]
Fixed parameters
fixed.value
n 2
Model parameter estimates w 95% CI
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
alpha 1.9449552 0.9286538 4.0734779 0.6652390
beta 0.3718375 0.1026767 1.3465865 -0.9892984
r 0.2369359 0.1187376 0.4727954 -1.4399658
rc 0.2369359 0.1187376 0.4727954 -1.4399658
rold 0.2369359 0.1187376 0.4727954 -1.4399658
m 64.9154309 16.7236402 251.9794210 4.1730854
K 1095.9156969 263.2611297 4562.1289245 6.9993455
q 0.0005191 0.0001152 0.0023391 -7.5634273
sdb 0.2852145 0.1488104 0.5466505 -1.2545139
sdf 0.3022385 0.1857508 0.4917779 -1.1965388
sdi 0.5547294 0.4164053 0.7390028 -0.5892749
sdc 0.1123836 0.0412180 0.3064214 -2.1858372
Deterministic reference points (Drp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
Bmsyd 547.9578485 131.6305649 2281.0644623 6.306198
Fmsyd 0.1184679 0.0593688 0.2363977 -2.133113
MSYd 64.9154309 16.7236402 251.9794210 4.173085
Stochastic reference points (Srp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est rel.diff.Drp
Bmsys 441.6742665 91.9700003 2121.0846691 6.090573 -0.2406379
Fmsys 0.0982117 0.0450199 0.2142507 -2.320630 -0.2062507
MSYs 41.2246923 6.7505590 251.7532650 3.719037 -0.5746735
States w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
B_2024.94 266.7002661 55.4239757 1283.3621371 5.5861254
F_2024.94 0.0558026 0.0112911 0.2757863 -2.8859347
B_2024.94/Bmsy 0.6038393 0.0504420 7.2285421 -0.5044472
F_2024.94/Fmsy 0.5681868 0.1379802 2.3397279 -0.5653051
Predictions w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
prediction cilow ciupp log.est
B_2027.00 313.2170056 62.3328804 1573.8867182 5.7468963
F_2027.00 0.0558029 0.0091309 0.3410376 -2.8859287
B_2027.00/Bmsy 0.7091584 0.0643577 7.8142279 -0.3436764
F_2027.00/Fmsy 0.5681902 0.1089751 2.9625114 -0.5652990
Catch_2026.00 16.8033262 5.9379987 47.5499890 2.8215769
E(B_inf) 330.7062317 NA NA 5.8012305 Distance m K q sdb sdf sdi sdc
Basevec 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 1 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 2 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 3 0.00 64.92 1095.91 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 4 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 5 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 6 0.00 64.92 1095.91 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 7 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 8 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 9 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 10 0.01 64.91 1095.90 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 11 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 12 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 13 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 14 0.00 64.92 1095.91 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 15 0.01 64.92 1095.93 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 16 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 17 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 18 0.00 64.91 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 19 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 20 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 21 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 22 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 23 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 24 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 25 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 26 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 27 0.02 64.92 1095.94 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 28 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 29 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 30 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 31 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 32 0.01 64.91 1095.91 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 33 0.01 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 34 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 35 0.01 64.91 1095.91 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 36 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 37 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 38 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 39 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 40 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 41 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 42 0.01 64.92 1095.90 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 43 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 44 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 45 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 46 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 47 0.03 64.91 1095.89 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 48 0.00 64.92 1095.91 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 49 0.00 64.92 1095.92 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
Trial 50 0.01 64.92 1095.93 0 0.29 0.3 0.55 0.11
SPiCT timeline:
Observations Intermediate Management
1983.00 - 2025.00 2025.00 - 2026.00 2026.00 - 2027.00
|-----------------------| ----------------------| ----------------------|
Management evaluation: 2027.00
Predicted catch for management period and states at management evaluation time:
C B/Bmsy F/Fmsy
1. ices35 23.7 0.69 0.81
2. ices15 16.9 0.71 0.57no_r
Convergence: 0 MSG: relative convergence (4)
Objective function at optimum: 73.8782575
Euler time step (years): 1/16 or 0.0625
Nobs C: 41, Nobs I1: 40
Residual diagnostics (p-values)
shapiro bias acf LBox shapiro bias acf LBox
C 0.8559 0.7493 0.2854 0.4923 - - - -
I1 0.7929 0.7264 0.6025 0.8662 - - - -
F 0.3471 0.7530 0.1385 0.2858 - - - -
B 0.4847 0.6175 0.0350 0.1542 - - * -
No priors are used
Fixed parameters
fixed.value
n 2
Model parameter estimates w 95% CI
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
alpha 2.2123464 0.9813256 4.9876174 0.7940537
beta 0.3894320 0.1228363 1.2346295 -0.9430661
r 0.1425974 0.0299345 0.6792834 -1.9477303
rc 0.1425974 0.0299345 0.6792834 -1.9477303
rold 0.1425974 0.0299345 0.6792834 -1.9477303
m 53.2146189 10.8925300 259.9759334 3.9743331
K 1492.7238675 280.1207175 7954.5153424 7.3083578
q 0.0002984 0.0000129 0.0069164 -8.1171440
sdb 0.2538632 0.1221613 0.5275526 -1.3709598
sdf 0.3066604 0.1902129 0.4943964 -1.1820144
sdi 0.5616333 0.4240118 0.7439225 -0.5769062
sdc 0.1194234 0.0498177 0.2862823 -2.1250805
Deterministic reference points (Drp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
Bmsyd 746.3619338 140.0603587 3977.2576712 6.615211
Fmsyd 0.0712987 0.0149672 0.3396417 -2.640878
MSYd 53.2146189 10.8925300 259.9759334 3.974333
Stochastic reference points (Srp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est rel.diff.Drp
Bmsys 565.0036211 103.9663808 3070.5030728 6.336832 -0.3209861
Fmsys 0.0552091 0.0079211 0.3848005 -2.896628 -0.2914298
MSYs 28.2753384 1.9233384 415.6807594 3.341990 -0.8820153
States w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
B_2024.94 405.2591706 20.4587263 8027.6256097 6.0045268
F_2024.94 0.0360046 0.0017401 0.7449766 -3.3241078
B_2024.94/Bmsy 0.7172683 0.0204234 25.1904237 -0.3323054
F_2024.94/Fmsy 0.6521506 0.0678634 6.2670057 -0.4274798
Predictions w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
prediction cilow ciupp log.est
B_2027.00 434.9471516 24.7804034 7634.218923 6.0752245
F_2027.00 0.0360050 0.0015425 0.840418 -3.3240986
B_2027.00/Bmsy 0.7698130 0.0251945 23.521468 -0.2616076
F_2027.00/Fmsy 0.6521566 0.0578861 7.347328 -0.4274705
Catch_2026.00 15.3860672 5.4938187 43.090440 2.7334624
E(B_inf) 134.7376304 NA NA 4.9033294 Distance m K q sdb sdf sdi sdc
Basevec 0.00 53.21 1492.72 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 1 0.04 53.22 1492.77 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 2 0.04 53.22 1492.77 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 3 0.04 53.22 1492.76 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 4 0.07 53.22 1492.80 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 5 0.04 53.22 1492.76 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 6 0.05 53.22 1492.78 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 7 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 8 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 9 0.05 53.22 1492.77 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 10 0.06 53.22 1492.79 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 11 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 12 0.02 53.22 1492.75 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 13 0.03 53.22 1492.75 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 14 0.04 53.22 1492.77 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 15 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 16 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 17 0.04 53.22 1492.76 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 18 0.03 53.22 1492.76 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 19 0.05 53.22 1492.78 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 20 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 21 0.04 53.22 1492.77 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 22 0.03 53.22 1492.76 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 23 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 24 0.04 53.22 1492.77 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 25 0.04 53.22 1492.77 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 26 0.05 53.22 1492.77 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 27 0.05 53.22 1492.77 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 28 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 29 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 30 0.04 53.22 1492.77 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 31 0.03 53.22 1492.76 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 32 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 33 0.05 53.22 1492.77 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 34 0.03 53.22 1492.76 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 35 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 36 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 37 0.09 53.22 1492.81 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 38 0.05 53.22 1492.77 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 39 0.03 53.22 1492.76 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 40 0.04 53.22 1492.76 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 41 0.04 53.22 1492.76 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 42 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 43 0.04 53.22 1492.77 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 44 0.04 53.22 1492.77 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 45 0.05 53.22 1492.77 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 46 0.04 53.22 1492.77 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 47 0.04 53.22 1492.77 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 48 0.06 53.22 1492.78 0 0.25 0.31 0.56 0.12
Trial 49 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 50 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NAPlot failed:
Error in par(mfrow = n2mfrow(nopriors)) :
invalid value specified for graphical parameter "mfrow"
SPiCT timeline:
Observations Intermediate Management
1983.00 - 2025.00 2025.00 - 2026.00 2026.00 - 2027.00
|-----------------------| ----------------------| ----------------------|
Management evaluation: 2027.00
Predicted catch for management period and states at management evaluation time:
C B/Bmsy F/Fmsy
1. ices35 19.1 0.76 0.81
2. ices15 13.6 0.77 0.58narrow_sdb
Convergence: 0 MSG: relative convergence (4)
Objective function at optimum: 75.3843617
Euler time step (years): 1/16 or 0.0625
Nobs C: 41, Nobs I1: 40
Residual diagnostics (p-values)
shapiro bias acf LBox shapiro bias acf LBox
C 0.2524 0.7638 0.2365 0.5314 - - - -
I1 0.3911 0.9780 0.2983 0.6038 - - - -
F 0.3299 0.7508 0.1314 0.1937 - - - -
B 0.7176 0.9788 0.0147 0.0669 - - * .
Priors
logr ~ dnorm[log(0.372), 0.2^2]
logsdb ~ dnorm[log(0.149), 0.1^2]
Fixed parameters
fixed.value
n 2
Model parameter estimates w 95% CI
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
alpha 3.9226375 2.7632730 5.568427e+00 1.3667643
beta 0.4670033 0.1799183 1.212173e+00 -0.7614190
r 0.2878902 0.2100268 3.946200e-01 -1.2451761
rc 0.2878902 0.2100268 3.946200e-01 -1.2451761
rold 0.2878902 0.2100268 3.946200e-01 -1.2451761
m 176.7692732 14.2754278 2.188892e+03 5.1748453
K 2456.0651601 195.3913981 3.087268e+04 7.8063158
q 0.0010207 0.0006209 1.677800e-03 -6.8872805
sdb 0.1554788 0.1274977 1.896007e-01 -1.8612460
sdf 0.3022856 0.1939274 4.711896e-01 -1.1963830
sdi 0.6098869 0.4686411 7.937034e-01 -0.4944817
sdc 0.1411684 0.0745212 2.674207e-01 -1.9578020
Deterministic reference points (Drp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
Bmsyd 1228.0325800 97.6956990 15436.33991 7.113169
Fmsyd 0.1439451 0.1050134 0.19731 -1.938323
MSYd 176.7692732 14.2754278 2188.89244 5.174845
Stochastic reference points (Srp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est rel.diff.Drp
Bmsys 1168.167491 92.7695866 1.470973e+04 7.063192 -0.05124701
Fmsys 0.137938 0.0993222 1.915674e-01 -1.980951 -0.04354928
MSYs 160.775117 12.8976894 2.004129e+03 5.080007 -0.09948154
States w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
B_2024.94 173.8149801 70.4361428 428.9225121 5.1579914
F_2024.94 0.0882897 0.0340283 0.2290758 -2.4271320
B_2024.94/Bmsy 0.1487929 0.0080279 2.7578063 -1.9052002
F_2024.94/Fmsy 0.6400677 0.2433540 1.6835013 -0.4461813
Predictions w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
prediction cilow ciupp log.est
B_2027.00 243.4605793 83.4999860 709.8570494 5.4949550
F_2027.00 0.0882900 0.0245998 0.3168773 -2.4271280
B_2027.00/Bmsy 0.2084124 0.0113178 3.8378285 -1.5682365
F_2027.00/Fmsy 0.6400703 0.1765300 2.3207945 -0.4461773
Catch_2026.00 19.7583761 8.4065865 46.4389945 2.9835775
E(B_inf) 1454.8252112 NA NA 7.2826410 Distance m K q sdb sdf sdi sdc
Basevec 0.00 176.77 2456.07 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 1 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 2 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 3 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 4 0.01 176.77 2456.08 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 5 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 6 0.01 176.77 2456.07 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 7 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 8 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 9 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 10 0.00 176.77 2456.07 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 11 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 12 0.01 176.77 2456.07 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 13 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 14 0.01 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 15 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 16 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 17 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 18 0.02 176.77 2456.09 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 19 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 20 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 21 0.02 176.77 2456.04 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 22 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 23 0.00 176.77 2456.07 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 24 0.01 176.77 2456.05 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 25 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 26 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 27 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 28 0.01 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 29 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 30 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 31 0.01 176.77 2456.07 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 32 0.02 176.77 2456.04 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 33 0.04 176.77 2456.02 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 34 0.01 176.77 2456.08 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 35 0.00 176.77 2456.07 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 36 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 37 0.02 176.77 2456.08 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 38 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 39 0.00 176.77 2456.07 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 40 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 41 0.00 176.77 2456.07 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 42 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 43 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 44 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 45 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 46 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 47 0.01 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 48 0.00 176.77 2456.07 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 49 0.01 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
Trial 50 0.00 176.77 2456.06 0 0.16 0.3 0.61 0.14
SPiCT timeline:
Observations Intermediate Management
1983.00 - 2025.00 2025.00 - 2026.00 2026.00 - 2027.00
|-----------------------| ----------------------| ----------------------|
Management evaluation: 2027.00
Predicted catch for management period and states at management evaluation time:
C B/Bmsy F/Fmsy
1. ices35 0 0.23 0
2. ices15 0 0.23 0mid_sdb
Convergence: 0 MSG: relative convergence (4)
Objective function at optimum: 75.8764791
Euler time step (years): 1/16 or 0.0625
Nobs C: 41, Nobs I1: 40
Residual diagnostics (p-values)
shapiro bias acf LBox shapiro bias acf LBox
C 0.2532 0.7357 0.2505 0.5258 - - - -
I1 0.4052 0.9875 0.3231 0.6442 - - - -
F 0.3314 0.7320 0.1312 0.2132 - - - -
B 0.6389 0.9294 0.0133 0.0614 - - * .
Priors
logr ~ dnorm[log(0.372), 0.2^2]
logsdb ~ dnorm[log(0.147), 0.2^2]
Fixed parameters
fixed.value
n 2
Model parameter estimates w 95% CI
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
alpha 3.4258154 2.0023469 5.861228e+00 1.2313395
beta 0.4567572 0.1716772 1.215229e+00 -0.7836033
r 0.2922678 0.2123071 4.023437e-01 -1.2300849
rc 0.2922678 0.2123071 4.023437e-01 -1.2300849
rold 0.2922678 0.2123071 4.023437e-01 -1.2300849
m 144.3113524 17.5923524 1.183797e+03 4.9719731
K 1975.0567458 235.0097746 1.659867e+04 7.5883524
q 0.0009887 0.0005800 1.685200e-03 -6.9191508
sdb 0.1744051 0.1172721 2.593723e-01 -1.7463747
sdf 0.3018125 0.1924592 4.732994e-01 -1.1979493
sdi 0.5974796 0.4547810 7.849534e-01 -0.5150351
sdc 0.1378550 0.0709563 2.678271e-01 -1.9815526
Deterministic reference points (Drp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
Bmsyd 987.5283729 117.5048873 8299.3338387 6.895205
Fmsyd 0.1461339 0.1061536 0.2011719 -1.923232
MSYd 144.3113524 17.5923524 1183.7965718 4.971973
Stochastic reference points (Srp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est rel.diff.Drp
Bmsys 927.7202514 108.7197569 7916.3611947 6.832730 -0.06446784
Fmsys 0.1385768 0.0994056 0.1931838 -1.976330 -0.05453351
MSYs 128.1085758 15.1000518 1086.8709168 4.852878 -0.12647691
States w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
B_2024.94 174.7581060 70.0084600 436.2386437 5.1634028
F_2024.94 0.0877026 0.0336176 0.2288014 -2.4338039
B_2024.94/Bmsy 0.1883737 0.0147944 2.3985129 -1.6693275
F_2024.94/Fmsy 0.6328805 0.2403820 1.6662553 -0.4574737
Predictions w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
prediction cilow ciupp log.est
B_2027.00 242.5097475 81.7810838 719.1269043 5.4910419
F_2027.00 0.0877029 0.0243581 0.3157807 -2.4337999
B_2027.00/Bmsy 0.2614040 0.0206008 3.3169527 -1.3416883
F_2027.00/Fmsy 0.6328830 0.1745707 2.2944335 -0.4574697
Catch_2026.00 19.6025837 8.1884598 46.9271756 2.9756614
E(B_inf) 1133.3078138 NA NA 7.0328959 Distance m K q sdb sdf sdi sdc
Basevec 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 1 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 2 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 3 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 4 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 5 0.01 144.31 1975.07 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 6 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 7 0.04 144.31 1975.09 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 8 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 9 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 10 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 11 0.01 144.31 1975.07 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 12 0.01 144.31 1975.04 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 13 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 14 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 15 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 16 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 17 0.01 144.31 1975.07 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 18 0.01 144.31 1975.05 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 19 0.01 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 20 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 21 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 22 0.02 144.31 1975.07 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 23 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 24 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 25 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 26 0.01 144.31 1975.07 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 27 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 28 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 29 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 30 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 31 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 32 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 33 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 34 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 35 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 36 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 37 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 38 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 39 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 40 0.01 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 41 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 42 0.00 144.31 1975.05 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 43 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 44 0.00 144.31 1975.05 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 45 0.00 144.31 1975.05 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 46 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 47 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 48 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 49 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
Trial 50 0.00 144.31 1975.06 0 0.17 0.3 0.6 0.14
SPiCT timeline:
Observations Intermediate Management
1983.00 - 2025.00 2025.00 - 2026.00 2026.00 - 2027.00
|-----------------------| ----------------------| ----------------------|
Management evaluation: 2027.00
Predicted catch for management period and states at management evaluation time:
C B/Bmsy F/Fmsy
1. ices35 0 0.28 0
2. ices15 0 0.28 0wide_sdb
Convergence: 0 MSG: both X-convergence and relative convergence (5)
Objective function at optimum: 75.8313361
Euler time step (years): 1/16 or 0.0625
Nobs C: 41, Nobs I1: 40
Residual diagnostics (p-values)
shapiro bias acf LBox shapiro bias acf LBox
C 0.2613 0.6966 0.2118 0.4735 - - - -
I1 0.6070 0.9156 0.5817 0.8196 - - - -
F 0.2766 0.6686 0.1346 0.2706 - - - -
B 0.4263 0.9222 0.0174 0.0808 - - * .
Priors
logr ~ dnorm[log(0.372), 0.2^2]
logsdb ~ dnorm[log(0.132), 0.5^2]
Fixed parameters
fixed.value
n 2
Model parameter estimates w 95% CI
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
alpha 2.1737280 1.1129243 4.2456557 0.7764437
beta 0.3987069 0.1227793 1.2947398 -0.9195286
r 0.3142847 0.2229417 0.4430525 -1.1574561
rc 0.3142847 0.2229417 0.4430525 -1.1574561
rold 0.3142847 0.2229417 0.4430525 -1.1574561
m 86.5590853 25.3913189 295.0801915 4.4608272
K 1101.6647307 309.2684681 3924.3094722 7.0045777
q 0.0008373 0.0003914 0.0017914 -7.0853202
sdb 0.2580828 0.1505132 0.4425306 -1.3544750
sdf 0.3003764 0.1861864 0.4846005 -1.2027189
sdi 0.5610017 0.4215682 0.7465529 -0.5780313
sdc 0.1197622 0.0501227 0.2861576 -2.1222475
Deterministic reference points (Drp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
Bmsyd 550.8323653 154.6342340 1962.1547361 6.311431
Fmsyd 0.1571423 0.1114708 0.2215262 -1.850603
MSYd 86.5590853 25.3913189 295.0801915 4.460827
Stochastic reference points (Srp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est rel.diff.Drp
Bmsys 482.0842788 125.8014310 1847.3975213 6.178119 -0.1426059
Fmsys 0.1406117 0.0978644 0.2020311 -1.961753 -0.1175623
MSYs 66.6502609 16.5712870 268.0695388 4.199459 -0.2987059
States w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
B_2024.94 189.6808011 66.3667807 542.1207100 5.2453427
F_2024.94 0.0803306 0.0276112 0.2337097 -2.5216050
B_2024.94/Bmsy 0.3934598 0.0588048 2.6326197 -0.9327763
F_2024.94/Fmsy 0.5712935 0.2013905 1.6206137 -0.5598522
Predictions w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
prediction cilow ciupp log.est
B_2027.00 252.1989457 73.8325320 861.4672489 5.5302182
F_2027.00 0.0803309 0.0205745 0.3136435 -2.5216007
B_2027.00/Bmsy 0.5231429 0.0775123 3.5307761 -0.6479007
F_2027.00/Fmsy 0.5712960 0.1492358 2.1870030 -0.5598479
Catch_2026.00 18.9000920 7.1453512 49.9924307 2.9391668
E(B_inf) 526.0513296 NA NA 6.2653988 Distance m K q sdb sdf sdi sdc
Basevec 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 1 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 2 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 3 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 4 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 5 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 6 0.02 86.56 1101.68 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 7 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 8 0.00 86.56 1101.67 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 9 0.00 86.56 1101.67 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 10 0.01 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 11 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 12 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 13 0.01 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 14 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 15 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 16 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 17 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 18 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 19 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 20 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 21 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 22 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 23 0.00 86.56 1101.67 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 24 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 25 0.00 86.56 1101.67 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 26 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 27 0.00 86.56 1101.67 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 28 0.00 86.56 1101.67 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 29 0.01 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 30 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 31 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 32 0.00 86.56 1101.67 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 33 0.01 86.56 1101.67 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 34 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 35 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 36 0.00 86.56 1101.67 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 37 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 38 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 39 0.03 86.56 1101.64 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 40 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 41 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 42 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 43 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 44 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 45 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 46 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 47 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 48 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 49 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
Trial 50 0.00 86.56 1101.66 0 0.26 0.3 0.56 0.12
SPiCT timeline:
Observations Intermediate Management
1983.00 - 2025.00 2025.00 - 2026.00 2026.00 - 2027.00
|-----------------------| ----------------------| ----------------------|
Management evaluation: 2027.00
Predicted catch for management period and states at management evaluation time:
C B/Bmsy F/Fmsy
1. ices35 24.5 0.51 0.75
2. ices15 17.8 0.53 0.54Tweedie
Convergence: 0 MSG: relative convergence (4)
Objective function at optimum: 72.7715786
Euler time step (years): 1/16 or 0.0625
Nobs C: 41, Nobs I1: 40
Residual diagnostics (p-values)
shapiro bias acf LBox shapiro bias acf LBox
C 0.3365 0.7537 0.2566 0.3939 - - - -
I1 0.5739 0.8477 0.2154 0.5599 - - - -
F 0.1132 0.9397 0.1396 0.2135 - - - -
B 0.1651 0.7539 0.0060 0.0276 - - ** *
Priors
logr ~ dnorm[log(0.372), 0.2^2]
Fixed parameters
fixed.value
n 2
Model parameter estimates w 95% CI
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
alpha 1.9599750 0.9017594 4.2600079 0.6729317
beta 0.3423559 0.0876111 1.3378169 -1.0719045
r 0.3238969 0.2303248 0.4554839 -1.1273300
rc 0.3238969 0.2303248 0.4554839 -1.1273300
rold 0.3238969 0.2303248 0.4554839 -1.1273300
m 74.0462942 50.1388516 109.3533957 4.3046905
K 914.4427005 595.3132534 1404.6478014 6.8183148
q 0.0007972 0.0004488 0.0014161 -7.1343966
sdb 0.2734609 0.1514940 0.4936225 -1.2965968
sdf 0.3262076 0.2084299 0.5105379 -1.1202214
sdi 0.5359764 0.3901289 0.7363483 -0.6236651
sdc 0.1116791 0.0381315 0.3270847 -2.1921259
Deterministic reference points (Drp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
Bmsyd 457.2213502 297.6566267 702.3239007 6.125168
Fmsyd 0.1619485 0.1151624 0.2277419 -1.820477
MSYd 74.0462942 50.1388516 109.3533957 4.304691
Stochastic reference points (Srp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est rel.diff.Drp
Bmsys 394.7293205 255.2618663 610.3976231 5.978200 -0.1583162
Fmsys 0.1433984 0.1003828 0.2048469 -1.942129 -0.1293603
MSYs 55.4443155 35.4745793 86.6556329 4.015379 -0.3355074
States w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
B_2024.94 182.7293157 74.7225211 446.853269 5.2080059
F_2024.94 0.0833851 0.0337038 0.206299 -2.4842861
B_2024.94/Bmsy 0.4629231 0.1963270 1.091535 -0.7701944
F_2024.94/Fmsy 0.5814923 0.2396101 1.411181 -0.5421575
Predictions w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
prediction cilow ciupp log.est
B_2027.00 238.4364403 75.9703742 748.3435044 5.4741028
F_2027.00 0.0833854 0.0229574 0.3028705 -2.4842820
B_2027.00/Bmsy 0.6040505 0.1980044 1.8427725 -0.5040975
F_2027.00/Fmsy 0.5814947 0.1622651 2.0838501 -0.5421534
Catch_2026.00 18.6423748 6.7246064 51.6815584 2.9254372
E(B_inf) 410.1344890 NA NA 6.0164851 Distance m K q sdb sdf sdi sdc
Basevec 0.00 74.05 914.44 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 1 211.75 78.68 1126.14 0 0.01 0.34 0.69 0.14
Trial 2 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 3 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 4 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 5 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 6 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 7 0.02 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 8 0.02 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 9 0.01 74.05 914.45 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 10 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 11 0.02 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 12 0.02 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 13 0.01 74.05 914.45 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 14 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 15 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 16 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 17 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 18 211.75 78.68 1126.14 0 0.01 0.34 0.69 0.14
Trial 19 211.75 78.68 1126.14 0 0.01 0.34 0.69 0.14
Trial 20 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 21 0.02 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 22 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 23 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 24 0.02 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 25 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 26 0.01 74.05 914.45 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 27 211.75 78.68 1126.14 0 0.01 0.34 0.69 0.14
Trial 28 211.75 78.68 1126.14 0 0.01 0.34 0.69 0.14
Trial 29 0.01 74.05 914.45 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 30 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 31 0.01 74.05 914.45 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 32 0.02 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 33 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Trial 34 0.02 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 35 211.75 78.68 1126.14 0 0.01 0.34 0.69 0.14
Trial 36 211.75 78.68 1126.14 0 0.01 0.34 0.69 0.14
Trial 37 0.02 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 38 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 39 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 40 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 41 0.01 74.05 914.45 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 42 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 43 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 44 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 45 0.02 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 46 0.02 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 47 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 48 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 49 0.01 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
Trial 50 0.02 74.05 914.46 0 0.27 0.33 0.54 0.11
SPiCT timeline:
Observations Intermediate Management
1983.00 - 2025.00 2025.00 - 2026.00 2026.00 - 2027.00
|-----------------------| ----------------------| ----------------------|
Management evaluation: 2027.00
Predicted catch for management period and states at management evaluation time:
C B/Bmsy F/Fmsy
1. ices35 25.6 0.59 0.81
2. ices15 18.3 0.60 0.57Fox
Convergence: 0 MSG: relative convergence (4)
Objective function at optimum: 76.2636338
Euler time step (years): 1/16 or 0.0625
Nobs C: 41, Nobs I1: 40
Residual diagnostics (p-values)
shapiro bias acf LBox shapiro bias acf LBox
C 0.9617 0.5781 0.0409 0.2243 - - * -
I1 0.6760 0.9411 0.2849 0.5814 - - - -
F 0.1389 0.7762 0.2629 0.5500 - - - -
B 0.5724 0.6576 0.0222 0.0732 - - * .
Priors
logr ~ dnorm[log(0.372), 0.2^2]
Fixed parameters
fixed.value
n 1.001
Model parameter estimates w 95% CI
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
alpha 1.2489422 0.7446954 2.094624e+00 0.2222969
beta 0.1760624 0.0020151 1.538294e+01 -1.7369168
r 0.3043269 0.2172044 4.263949e-01 -1.1896528
rc 0.6080458 0.4339749 8.519379e-01 -0.4975051
rold 304.3269045 217.2044313 4.263949e+02 5.7181025
m 1041.7001042 0.3532424 3.071939e+06 6.9486094
K 9309.2333310 3.2095774 2.700101e+07 9.1387620
q 0.0000224 0.0000000 7.577530e-02 -10.7055252
sdb 0.4330844 0.3042009 6.165732e-01 -0.8368226
sdf 0.3006530 0.1821396 4.962800e-01 -1.2017985
sdi 0.5408974 0.3916902 7.469423e-01 -0.6145257
sdc 0.0529337 0.0007663 3.656612e+00 -2.9387153
Deterministic reference points (Drp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
Bmsyd 3426.3871802 1.1813277 9.938080e+06 8.139262
Fmsyd 0.3040229 0.2169874 4.259689e-01 -1.190652
MSYd 1041.7001042 0.3532424 3.071939e+06 6.948609
Stochastic reference points (Srp)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est rel.diff.Drp
Bmsys 2803.0785391 0.9544061 8.232606e+06 7.938474 -0.2223657427
Fmsys 0.3039775 0.2169526 4.259102e-01 -1.190802 -0.0001492928
MSYs 852.0445128 0.2853679 2.544013e+06 6.747639 -0.2225888302
States w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
estimate cilow ciupp log.est
B_2024.94 6349.8431098 1.8643708 2.162687e+07 8.7561854
F_2024.94 0.0023139 0.0000007 7.900927e+00 -6.0688367
B_2024.94/Bmsy 2.2653105 0.9851059 5.209218e+00 0.8177118
F_2024.94/Fmsy 0.0076120 0.0000022 2.647740e+01 -4.8780351
Predictions w 95% CI (inp$msytype: s)
prediction cilow ciupp log.est
B_2026.00 6468.9926022 1.8902036 2.213934e+07 8.7747757
F_2026.00 0.0023140 0.0000007 8.077877e+00 -6.0687674
B_2026.00/Bmsy 2.3078171 0.8747172 6.088848e+00 0.8363021
F_2026.00/Fmsy 0.0076125 0.0000021 2.706902e+01 -4.8779658
Catch_2025.00 14.8384748 6.8959754 3.192882e+01 2.6972235
E(B_inf) 6388.4219618 NA NA 8.7622426 NULL
SPiCT timeline:
Observations Management
1983.00 - 2025.00 2025.00 - 2026.00
|-----------------------| ----------------------|
Management evaluation: 2026.00
Predicted catch for management period and states at management evaluation time:
C B/Bmsy F/Fmsy
1. ices35 1348.1 1.89 0.76
2. ices15 896.1 2.03 0.49